COVID cases are up, but restrictions unlikely to return

Given the low rate of COVID-19 and the long odds that mask mandates will return to Virginia, Hall decided he did not need them anymore.

Disease caused by COVID has increased somewhat in Virginia this summer, but rates remain low, a significant surge this fall is unlikely, and government-mandated restrictions are likely near extinct under Republican leadership.

The number of people diagnosed with COVID at Virginia emergency rooms reached 2% last week. That’s the highest number since January, but it’s still lower than previous, more serious waves.

COVID’s threat is low enough that residents should not be overly concerned, Gov. Glenn Youngkin told reporters this week, noting that the state monitors COVID continuously.

“I think people should just live their lives and be responsible — and if someone doesn’t feel well, call the doctor,” Youngkin said.

But the rise in cases was enough for some business leaders to ask for guidance on how to respond, for some residents to bring back their masks, and for others to seek out newly available vaccines.

For the first six months of the year, COVID was going down in Virginia. Since mid-July, it has staged a bit of a comeback — about 1,600 people were diagnosed with COVID in Virginia emergency rooms last week, compared with roughly 300 in early summer.

At least 10 different variants surfaced in the state in August, including the two most prevalent strains, XBB.1.5 and EG.5.

But COVID numbers are still low compared with previous surges. In December 2022, there were roughly 4,000 people diagnosed with the virus in Virginia emergency rooms. In January 2022, when omicron was at its peak, there were more than 11,000.

Based on the latest data, there’s not much evidence a new surge is coming. COVID’s growth has slowed in the past week and may be entering a plateau phase, according to the state health department. None of the state’s 30 wastewater surveillance sites showed increased levels last week.

And the number of patients admitted to hospitals because of COVID has shrunk from about 100 in late August to fewer than 50, according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association. Rates of influenza and RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, are low, too, though flu cases typically do not ascend in the state until October.

Unless a particularly evasive variant arises, case levels will likely rise but not exceed previous falls and winters, said Bryan Lewis, a research associate professor at the Biocomplexity Institute of the University of Virginia.

Thanks to vaccination, previous infection and people staying home when they are sick, the state “is in a much better place than we’ve ever been,” said Heather Harmon-Sloan, the Virginia Department of Health’s COVID unit lead.

According to The Virginian-Pilot editorial board, unfounded rumors have spread across the state asserting the next COVID wave will lead state leaders to reimpose mask mandates, school closures and business restrictions. But that’s all they are, rumors.

During a political rally in Henrico County on Monday night, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney General Jason Miyares emphasized how Youngkin worked last year to bar mask mandates in schools and they criticized COVID restrictions in the previous Democratic administration.

Under Youngkin’s direction, “you get to decide as a parent whether your child’s going to be masked for eight hours a day,” Miyares said.

On his first day in office in January 2022, Youngkin signed an executive order barring mask mandates from public schools. After several school divisions challenged the governor in court, the legislature made it official, passing a law restricting schools from imposing mask mandates, which Youngkin signed in February 2022.

Earle-Sears said the COVID policies set by then-Gov. Ralph Northam are a reason to give Republicans total control of the legislature this November, when all 140 seats are up for election.

“They had shut our businesses down and determined which businesses were essential,” she said. “They shut our schools down and told us how we were going to educate our children — except that they weren’t learning anything,” she added, also decrying past COVID restrictions on Virginia houses of worship.

But the increase in cases was enough for business leaders to seek advice on how to respond. Businesses are not getting clear answers from federal authorities about how to handle a sick employee, said Barry DuVal, CEO of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce. Most employers in the area are asking employees to isolate for five days and, if the employee has no fever, he or she can return wearing a mask, DuVal said.

Harmon-Sloan of the health department generally agreed with that approach. A patient is most infectious the first five days after transmission and should isolate during that period, she said. Because a person can remain infectious until Day 10, he or she should wear a high-quality mask for the next five days. She also recommended people get vaccinated, wash their hands, cover their mouth when coughing and sneezing, and stay home when sick.

At Virginia Commonwealth University, reported cases from students and employees have declined since August. At VCU and VCU Health, where there are about 50,000 students and employees, 23 students and 25 employees reported COVID cases last week, according to Dr. Shannan Green, director of student health services, and Suzanne Weaver, who oversees operations and wellness for VCU employees.

Most students visiting the university’s clinic are experiencing allergies and other respiratory illnesses, not COVID. There has been no uptick in employees asking to work from home, said Alison Miller, assistant vice president for human resources.

In Hanover County, school officials no longer track the number of COVID infections, so it’s hard to determine exactly how many students and teachers have come down with the virus, said Chris Whitley, a spokesperson for the district. There has been no spike in absences. Spokespeople for other Richmond-area schools did not answer questions about whether students and teachers are missing school due to the virus.

Altria, which employs nearly 4,000 local workers, has not seen an uptick, either, though many employees already work from home.

While some local residents have tossed their masks, some others have brought them back from the closet.

Ad Lester, a Richmond resident, started wearing a mask again earlier this year and wore it to the Kroger grocery store on North Lombardy Street this week.

COVID’s latest developments are not tracked in the media as closely as they used to be, so it’s better to be safe than sorry, Lester said.

“I just feel like it’s a good way to protect myself and others,” she added.

Yvette Wilson, another Richmond resident shopping at the Kroger, said she has continued to wear a mask in public since the pandemic’s peak. She said she is wary of seasonal variants and that each winter seems to bring a new strain of COVID.

“The virus mutates and then it turns into something else,” she said. “I just kinda wish that it was completely gone.”

This week, updated vaccines designed to prevent the latest strains of COVID arrived at Richmond-area pharmacies, spurring those interested to sign up.

While Youngkin encouraged residents to get a flu shot in answering a question about COVID after the political rally, he did not mention COVID boosters.

Youngkin often has said Virginians can make up their own minds about how to combat COVID. Last year, he stressed he opposes mandates, even as he released a public service announcement encouraging residents to get vaccinated against the virus.