For each country, we calculate the current vaccination rate as the average number of people who received their first dose of a vaccine per day, over the last 14 days.
We then assume that this recent vaccination rate remains constant for the remainder of the year. By adding this expected share to the share of the population that have already been vaccinated, we project what share of people will have received at least one dose by January 1, 2022. We exclude from our projections countries that have not reported figures for more than 30 days.
This method means that the projections do not take into account future increases or decreases in the speed of vaccination, which could result from changes in eligibility criteria, vaccine deliveries or shortages, or new government policies.